At first glance the statistics on buy-to-let mortgage numbers, arrears and repossessions would seem not that bad. That BTLers are weathering the current market better than encumbered owner-occupiers. However, closer inspection would suggest that the BTL bad debts are surging.

Revised GDP growth figures, released earlier today, put reduced
quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to zero, from a previous 0.2%, taking the year-on-year growth rate down to 1.4%.
The problem I have is that those figures use the Government’s preferred method of calculation, applying their GDP Expenditure Deflator. A deflator which is substantially less than CPI, let alone RPI [...]

Inflation figures manage to not surprise on two counts. 1. Both RPI and CPI price inflation are up. 2. Government wonks respond with, “Well, it is much less than the early 90s”. The unanswered question. How does the current secular bull in inflation compare with the 1959-1975 secular bull?

The total number of mortgages fell by 81,000 in the first six months of 2008, only the third time in the 37-year history of the figures. It follows a decline of 14,000 in H2 2007 and could signal that a secular bear in homeownership has started.