Seasonally adjusted value of retail sales in August down 0.1pc on month, up 1.6pc y-o-y. Predominantly food stores rose 5.5pc y-o-y, non-food fell 2.8pc. Volumes were unchanged m-o-m and up 2.1pc y-o-y. Predominantly food stores increased 3.3pc y-o-y, non-food rose 0.2pc.

Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index rose to 63 in August, the fifth consecutive monthly rise. The Expectations Index rose 3 points to 94. The Spending Index was up 1 point to 97. The Present Situation Index rose 1 point to 17.

The Markit/YouGov Household Finance Index (HFI) fell to 38.2 in August, form 38.5 in July. 30pc of households saw their financial situation deteriorate in August, just 6% saw an improvement. 30pc reported a reduction in household savings, only 10pc indicated a rise.

The last couple of weeks have seen a myriad of headlines expressing fears of imminent recession. The Government claim GDP growth is still holding above the negative. But how reflective of the situation are their numbers?

Revised GDP growth figures, released earlier today, put reduced
quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to zero, from a previous 0.2%, taking the year-on-year growth rate down to 1.4%.
The problem I have is that those figures use the Government’s preferred method of calculation, applying their GDP Expenditure Deflator. A deflator which is substantially less than CPI, let alone RPI [...]

The latest GDP figures confirm the deteriorating economy and substantiate the predictions made in 2006, that there will be a recession in 2008 as GDP growth turns negative.