Entries for the ‘Opinion’ Category

Marc Faber on Lateline Business: Now You Need a Machine Gun

Dr. Marc Faber on Lateline Business, on 26 August, 2009. Are you joking (while laughing). Having faith in the US administration? I wonder ‘who’ on Earth would have faith in the US administration. Certainly, not someone who thinks.

Two Ron’s Make a Right

To which I would add these words from General Dwight D. Eisehower’s speech to the Texas A&M, 9 November 1950.
But one thing we must fear is decay of our freedoms through our own neglect. A Mussolini, Hitler or Lenin would not tolerate freedom of the ballot, yet half our people do not choose to exercise [...]

Quantitative Easing – Solution or Anagram

Has anyone else noticed that if you rearrange the phrase ‘Quantitative Easing’ you get:

What is the Shape of the Recession: V , U or L?

What is the shape of the recession? I expect a ‘W’ with a another ‘V’ after that. Based on what I wrote in 2007, the current recession should end early 2010, with another around 2013 and one more before that decade is over.

Inflation, stagflation, deflation, or all of the above?

That was the question that was posed by Brian Beasley (Brian B) on Linkedin.
The reality is that they are not mutually exclusive, which means I am sure we will have “all of the above”. I expect that different parts of the economy will experience one or more of these ‘flations.
If the price inflation secular bulls [...]

Interest Rate Decision: Chance of a Surprise

Price inflation peaking. King finally comprehending the situation. Deliberate support for the panic housing measures. Surprise. All this is why “I think there is a 60% chance they’ll surpise and cut”.

Initial Reaction to Panic Housing Measures

Although this is just an initial reaction to a cursory look at the Government’s panic measures, they would appear to be inadequate and likely to be long-term detrimental to the housing market.

Government GDP Growth Rate Versus Reality

The last couple of weeks have seen a myriad of headlines expressing fears of imminent recession. The Government claim GDP growth is still holding above the negative. But how reflective of the situation are their numbers?

Buy-to-Let Stats Hide Surge in Bad Debts

At first glance the statistics on buy-to-let mortgage numbers, arrears and repossessions would seem not that bad. That BTLers are weathering the current market better than encumbered owner-occupiers. However, closer inspection would suggest that the BTL bad debts are surging.

Shush: Real GDP Contracts Most in 27 Years

Revised GDP growth figures, released earlier today, put reduced
quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to zero, from a previous 0.2%, taking the year-on-year growth rate down to 1.4%.
The problem I have is that those figures use the Government’s preferred method of calculation, applying their GDP Expenditure Deflator. A deflator which is substantially less than CPI, let alone RPI [...]

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